Friday, August 31, 2012

MLB Friday 8/31

YTD 209-226, +14.52: Aug 15-16, +0.50

Braves-110(loss)

Best Wishes!!

Been messing up my Phillies fades.

Missed some good opportunities lately....

I finally bite, they sting me.

Playing the Dog in all Phils games has been good.

0-1, -1.10

YTD 209-227, +13.42: Aug 15-17, -0.60

Thursday, August 30, 2012

CFB Leans

Just opinions here.

2ndH SCarolina-3.5(Winner)
2ndH Over 21 SCar-Van(loss)
BYU-13(Winner)

Best Wishes!!

NFLX Thurs 8/30

YTD 19-14, +5.05

Let's try these tonight.

Eagles-4.5(Winner)
Rams-5(Winner)
Steelers-3(-120)(loss)
Chargers+125(loss)


Best Wishes!!

2-2, -0.20

YTD 21-16, +4.85

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Football Betting Ideas

Written by JSpacer6

As we approach football season, I wanted to take some time to share with those who plan on getting down on the games what I’ve learned in ten plus years of sports betting. I write this from the perspective of a third year law student, not a professional gambler. I don’t have the time to make my own power rankings or crunch stats and trends the way those who make a living do. Rather, like most of you reading this, I enjoy betting on sports, and believe i have finally found a place where I have learned to channel that enjoyment into a positive investment. Hopefully this advice can help those who have a sharp mind for sports betting, but havent yet figured out how to use it to turn a profit.

If football is your sport, you have to know that you are in the tightest market that exists in the sports gambling world. The lines are cut throat in the NFL so in order to turn a profit a ruthless yet confident approach needs to be employed. What does this mean? On the one hand is perfect money management, which is by far the hardest thing to learn for novice gamblers. This has been said many times but you must have a bankroll that matches your bet size. If you want to bet $100 a game, you really should have at minimum a $3,000 bankroll. Personally, I have given up on “unit” betting. I know that by betting mostly college football with a little NFL I should hit around 55% of my plays and by seasons end this will give me the return on my investment I am looking for if I flat bet every game. Moreover, the increased stress of stepping out on a play can lead to burning out, which for the less disciplined, leads to tilt. Because I know that I’m not the type of person who is immune to tilt, the only way I can be sure to avoid it is flat betting. My hunch is that most recreational betters are also capable of tilting fairly easily and should probably adopt a similar disciplined approach.

Once you have learned the money management side of the fine line, the question becomes how do you get your record up around 55%? The one thing I have learned from asking the right questions is that the key to gaining a long term edge on the books is to get the best of the number. This is a task much easier said than done, especially If you are like me and don’t have time to make your own power rankings. The answer, I believe, is confidently using your intuition so that when the right play is there you don’t hesitate to pull the trigger, thus giving yourself the best chance to get the best of it. What should your intuition be based on? This is tough question because I believe most of it cannot be taught. Growing up i went to thousands of games with my dad, many of which were to see my team play on the road. I believe this gave me a strong sense of how important home field advantage is, especially in football, and how much a teams performance fluctuates on a week to week basis.

One thing I always try to keep in mind is that I want to base my plays on the things that aren’t built into the line. Everyone knows who plays for each team, what their record is, what teams records are against each other, etc. Situational spots though, are less likely to be built into power ranking formulas. These are the angles that bookmakers can’t always use in adjusting their numbers. Because bookmakers rely heavily on the marketplace to steer prices, the task becomes getting ahead of the market or waiting for the market to come to you. Certain books are accessible to the average bettor here in the States that put their lines out early and if you are confident in your situational plays, you can beat opening numbers. Remember these lines are tight and once they have settled they are rarely better than a 52% proposition. This doesn’t mean that you should strictly bet the opening numbers, but if you are like me, you should use the motto that if it looks good grab it. Remember, you will never be perfect in getting the best of the number because you don’t have any control over the market at large. Syndicates move lines, not you. However, if you can be right more often than not in getting the best of it, you’ll gain the edge you need when the games actually kickoff.

In order to take this approach, you must plan ahead, know the schedule, and regularly monitor the lines. Schedule analysis is key for figuring out which weeks teams will be up and down, where the sandwich spots are, and whether these spots will be played early or late in the week by the professionals. By Thursday I have already broken down the following weeks games and know which ones I will be targeting Sunday night and which ones I will monitor throughout the next week. If I told you that this wasn’t what I was doing on my laptop in the back row of my law classes 80% of the time, I would definitely be lying to you. Normally I will play more college openers and wait on the NFL, as the big NFL money tends to come in later in the week after limits have increased. Also, I am simply more confident in college than the NFL. On game day I try to watch the teams I will be betting on or against the next week, looking for an abnormally poor or overwhelming performance respectively to gain incremental value in the opening number and lead to an early play.

If this all sounds like alot to take in just to turn a decent profit, it is. The bookmakers take their jobs just as seriously as you do and if making money in this game were easy, everyone would be doing it. In my opinion, this fine line of having perfect money management while at the same time being confidently aggressive in making plays must be straddled to make that solid return on investment. If you toe the line and have the talent and intuition, football season can be very rewarding but don’t fool yourself into thinking anything less will lead to success.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

MLB Sunday 8/26

YTD 209-225, +15.52: Aug 15-15, +1.50

Let's try this today.

Nationals+110(loss)

Best Wishes!!

Phillies showed up this series.

0-1, -1.00

YTD 209-226, +14.52: Aug 15-16, +0.50

Saturday, August 25, 2012

NFLX Saturday 8/25

YTD 14-13, +1.15

Nowhere to go but down following 5-0 Fri.

But we're gonna keep firing.

Under 41.5 Ind-Was(loss)
Steelers-2.5(Winner)
Raiders+3(Winner)
Over 44 Hou-NO(Winner)
Rams+5.5(Winner)
2ndH RamsPK(+14)(Winner)


Best Wishes!!

After dropping the 1st game....

We rolled them up from there!!

5-1, 3.90!!

YTD 19-14, +5.05

Friday, August 24, 2012

NFLX Friday 8/24

YTD 9-13, -3.85

Eagles+4.5(Winner)
Falcons-3(Winner)
Bucs+7(Winner)
Chargers+4.5(Winner)
Bears+3(-115)(Winner)


Best Wishes!!

Nice bounce back here.

5-0, +5.00

Woulda been a nice parlay score.....

How bout $13,860 for $100 using the Dog MLs.

Wow, talk about a bankroll builder.

Congrats and Cheers Winners!!

YTD 14-13, +1.15

MLB Friday 8/24

YTD 209-224, +16.67: Aug 15-14, +2.65

Nationals-115(loss)-1.15

Best Wishes!!

0-1, 1.15

YTD 209-225, +15.52: Aug 15-15, +1.50

Thursday, August 23, 2012

NFLX Thursday 8/23

YTD 7-8-1, -0.45

Let's try these tonight.

1stH Jags+3.5(loss)
Jags+6(loss)
Under 40 Jax-Bal(loss)
Bengals+125(loss)
Under 44.5 GB-Cin(Winner)
Titans-3(-107)(Winner)
Under 41 Az-Ten(loss)


Best Wishes!!

Brutal night.

2-5, -3.40

YTD 9-13, -3.85

MLB Thursday 8/23

YTD 208-224, +15.67: Aug 14-14, +1.65

Let's try this one tonight.

Hamels has been sharp and the line is reasonable.

So I'll take a shot with the home boys.

Phillies-111(Winner)

Best Wishes!!

1-0, +1.00

Needed something to smile about cuz NFL was ugly.

YTD 209-224, +16.67: Aug 15-14, +2.65

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

MLB Tues 8/21

YTD 203-222, +11.53: Aug 9-12, -2.49

Reds+145(Winner)+1.45
Over 7.5(-109)Cin-Phi(Winner)+1.00
Braves+130(loss)-1.00
Yankees-106(loss)-1.06
Marlins+150(Winner)+1.50
Over 7(+107)Pit-SD(Winner)+1.07
Padres+118(Winner)+1.18


Best Wishes!!

Strong night in MLB we roll 5-2, +4.14!!

Congrats and Cheers Winners!!

YTD 208-224, +15.67: Aug 14-14, +1.65

Monday, August 20, 2012

MLB Mon 8/20

YTD 202-221, +11.36: Aug 8-11, -2.66

Let's try this tonight.

Reds+144(loss)-1.00
Over 7.5(+117)Cin-Phi(Winner)+1.17


Best Wishes!!

1-1, +0.17

YTD 203-222, +11.53: Aug 9-12, -2.49

NFLX Mon 8/20

YTD 6-7, -0.35

Eagles-1(Winner)
1stH Eagles-120(push)
Under 41.5(loss)


Best Wishes!!

1-1-1, -0.10

YTD 7-8-1, -0.45

Sunday, August 19, 2012

CFL Sun 8/19

Let's try this one.

Saskatchewan+6(loss)

Best Wishes!!

Note to self, don't pick teams you can't spell.

NFLX Sun 8/19

YTD 4-5, -0.35

1stH Steelers-2.5(-115)(loss)-1.15
Steelers-4(+100)(loss)-1.00
Over 38 Ind-Pit(Winner)+1.00
2ndH Steelers-3(+115)(Winner)+1.15

Best Wishes!!

2-2, +0.00

YTD 6-7, -0.35

MLB Sun 8/19

YTD 198-219, +8.45: Aug 4-9, -5.57

Phillies+122(Winner)+1.22
Royals+102(Winner)+1.02
Rockies+130(Winner)+1.30
Rays+137(Winner)+1.37
Indians+110(loss)-1.00
Twins+114(loss)-1.00


Late Lean
Red Sox+155

Best Wishes!!

Solid 4-2, +2.91 day in MLB.

Congrats and Cheers Winners!!

YTD 202-221, +11.36: Aug 8-11, -2.66

Friday, August 17, 2012

MLB Friday 8/17

YTD 198-218, +9.45: Aug 4-8, -4.57

Let's try this

Phillies+135(loss)-1.00

Best Wishes!!

YTD 198-219, +8.45: Aug 4-9, -5.57

NFLX Darts Friday 8/17

YTD 3-3, +0.85

Let's try these tonight.

Dolphins+3.5(loss)
Lions+3(Winner)
Saints-6.5(loss)

Best Wishes!!

1-2, -1.20

YTD 4-5, -0.35

Thursday, August 16, 2012

NFLX Darts Thurs 8/16

NFLX 0-1, -1.10

Just throwing darts here.

Bengals+4(Winner)+1.00
Under 38 Cin-Atl(loss)-1.10
Bengals+180(Winner)+1.80
Browns+135(Winner)+1.35
Under 41 Cle-GB(loss)-1.10


Best Wishes!!

3-2, +1.95

YTD 3-3, +0.85

MLB Thurs 8/16

YTD 197-218, +8.35: Aug 3-8, -5.67

Ice cold, but...

Brewers+110(Winner)+1.10

Best Wishes!!

1-0, +1.10

YTD 198-218, +9.45: Aug 4-8, -4.57

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

MLB Tues 8/14

YTD 196-214, +11.24: August 2-4, -2.78

Let's try these tonight.

Rangers+127(loss)-1.00
Over 9(-113)Tex-NYY(loss)-1.13
Pirates+112(loss)-1.00
Phillies+145(Winner)+1.45
Over 7.5(-113)Phi-Mia(loss)-1.13

Best Wishes!!

1-4, -2.89

I give up.

Fuck this!!

Monday, August 13, 2012

NFLX Monday 8/13

Don't really have anything here.

Just want a rooting interest.

So, I'll just go with the home team.

Raiders-1.5(loss)

Best Wishes!!

The Under was the nuts here.

Shoulda known it was gonna be a stink-fest.

It's football, but 3-0 tho, lol, brutal.

MLB Monday 8/13

YTD 194-211, +12.02: August 0-1, -2.00

Let's try these tonight.

Rangers+104(loss)-1.00
B-Jays+115(Winner)+1.15
Marlins+151(loss)-1.00
Tigers-1.5(+115)(loss)-1.00
Nationals+107(Winner)+1.07

Best Wishes!!

Ugly night.

2-3, -0.78

YTD 196-214, +11.24: August 2-4, -2.78

RIP Elan Mitchell

I'm saddened by the news of the passing of Elan Mitchell, 24.

He was one of my bright students at Phila. Job Corps.

Elan had a wonderful smile and a joyous spirit.

He will be missed.

This was a sad day for us.

RIP Elan Mitchell!!

Sunday, August 12, 2012

USA Hoops Gold Medal Game

Sure the US should win.

But these numbers are sick.

Spain+21(Winner)
1stH Spain+11(Winner)
1stQt Spain+6(loss)

Lean
2ndH USA-14.5(L)

Best Wishes!!

CFB Todd Fuhrman's Top 25

Las Vegas bookmakers generally have much different opinions than pollsters and pundits, and that became evident today when Caesars Palace’s Todd Fuhrman published his top 25 college football rankings.

Caesars was the first Las Vegas sportsbook to release 2013 BCS national championship futures back in January, but after an interesting offseason that included NCAA sanctions, bowl bans, transfers, suspensions and injuries, things have changed considerably since then.

We’ve provided a table below comparing Fuhrman’s rankings to the USA Today top 25 coaches poll, in addition to ESPN.com and magazine consensus ratings.

Among the most interesting differences:

Fuhrman lists Michigan as the 15th best team, while USA Today, ESPN and the magazines all have the Wolverines ranked 8th overall. The Wolverines went 11-2 last year and are projected favorites in nine of 12 games in 2012.
Florida is ranked 17th, 23rd and 23rd by the pollsters and pundits. Fuhrman ranks them eighth. “I know people will take umbrage with a few teams that I’ve ranked abnormally,” Fuhrman wrote on his blog. “…However, that’s the nature of the exercise.”
The magazines and polls rank Kansas State anywhere between 20th and 25th, while Fuhrman doesn’t even have the Cats ranked. (Hey, you know what they say: Vegas isn’t always right.)

Note: You can visit Fuhrman’s blog, Todd’s Take, by clicking here.

* * *
RANK Todd Fuhrman USA Today Magazines ESPN.com
1 Alabama LSU LSU USC
2 USC Alabama USC LSU
3 LSU USC Alabama Alabama
4 Oregon Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma
5 Florida State Oregon Oregon Oregon
6 Georgia Georgia Florida State Georgia
7 Oklahoma Florida State Georgia Florida State
8 Florida Michigan Michigan Michigan
9 Wisconsin South Carolina Ohio State West Virginia
10 Ohio State Arkansas Arkansas South Carolina
11 Arkansas West Virginia South Carolina Arkansas
12 Texas Wisconsin Texas Michigan State
13 South Carolina Michigan State West Virginia Stanford
14 Nebraska Clemson Wisconsin Ohio State
15 Michigan Texas Oklahoma State Wisconsin
16 West Virginia Nebraska Michigan State Clemson
17 Oklahoma State TCU Florida Texas
18 Michigan State Stanford Clemson TCU
19 Notre Dame Oklahoma State Nebraska Virginia Tech
20 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech TCU Kansas State
21 TCU Kansas State Louisville Nebraska
22 Stanford Boise State Boise State Oklahoma State
23 Clemson Florida Notre Dame Florida
24 Auburn Notre Dame Auburn Boise State
25 Tennessee Auburn Kansas State Notre Dame

Monday, August 6, 2012

Football Focus

Football is back so I'll be spending more time getting ready for the NFL. Want to watch as many NFLX games as possible to see how all the teams are coming together. Will still dabble with bases here and there. But the plan is to try to be very selective there, while trying to stay on top of the NFL.  Best wishes and prayers to Andy Reid and his family. Be back soon.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

MLB 8/2

YTD 194-210, +14.02: August 0-0: July 37-46, -3.52

Let's see how August treats us.

Phillies+101(2 units)(loss)

Best Wishes!!

0-1, -2.00

Got that sinking feeling in the 3rd inning.

Rollins booted a routine(for him) 6-4-3 inning ending DP.

They scored it a hit and Cole ended up tagged with 2 ERs.

Thought Hamels pitched well enough to get a win.

As far as I'm concerned he only gave up 1 ER in 7 IP.

But Detwiler and the Nats totally shut the Phillies down.

So it may not have mattered, anyway.

Oh well, next week this time I'll be watching Vick and the Eagles.

YTD 194-211, +12.02: August 0-1, -2.00