NFL Betting Article (Stat-Fox)

NFL betting trends for Thursday participants
By: Michael Hill - StatFox
Published: 12/8/2010 at 7:08:00 AM
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The introduction of Thursday games in the latter part of the season provides some teams with what amounts to a second bye week at a time when some extra rest can be very beneficial. Wagering on these teams the week following these late-season Thursday games has proven to be very successful.
Starting with Week 10, there have been six Thursday games (we are not including the season opener between Minnesota and New Orleans in this study).

Since last Thursday’s participants (Houston and Philadelphia) have yet to take the field again, that leaves us with 10 teams to examine. There have also been two games featuring a pair of teams that played a Thursday game the week before so we’ve tossed those games from the study for the time being. The six remaining teams in this study are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their next games (5-1 SU). Restated, six teams that have participated in a late-season Thursday night game have faced a team that did not have the benefit of the extra rest the following week, and all six of these teams have beaten the spread. When you put the two games in which both teams were coming off the extra rest back into the mix, straight-up losers of Thursday night games are 5-0 ATS in their next games (3-2 SU).

Houston and Philadelphia will be looking to keep these angles perfect in Week 14. The Texans, last Thursday’s losers, are a home underdog to Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Keep in mind that the Ravens are exiting an extremely physical loss to Pittsburgh, which probably took an emotional toll on the team as well. As we pointed out earlier in the week, Houston has been one of the best home teams in the NFL over the final four weeks of the regular season during the past five years, posting an ATS record of 9-3 (75%).

Philadelphia, which defeated Houston last Thursday, is favored at Dallas in the Sunday night prime time game. The Cowboys are a dismal 2-7 ATS (22%) at home in the final quarter of the season over the last five years. The Cowboys are just 2-4 ATS at home this season.

Believe it or not, we have also uncovered a highly successful angle involving a certain group of teams that have had shorter rest periods between games.

With their 45-3 pasting of the NY Jets on Monday, New England became just the sixth home team to win outright on Monday Night Football this season (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS). Like the five home winners before them, the Patriots will be on the road (at Chicago) for their next game after a short week of preparation. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this has been a successful formula in 2010.

Teams playing on the road on Sunday after winning at home on Monday are 4-1 ATS (80%) this season (3-2 SU). The most recent example of this came in Week 12 when San Diego humiliated Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium after defeating division rival Denver at Qualcomm the preceding Monday.

The Patriots are a solid 4-2 on the road both ATS and SU so far this season and are 2-0 both ATS and SU against the NFC North. The Bears are an even 3-3 ATS at home (4-2 SU).