Wednesday, September 12, 2012

NFL Game of the Month!!

208 Philadelphia Eagles-2.5

"How in the world are the Eagles favored over the Ravens," asked Philly sports talk radio host and super-square Angelo Cataldi. The Eagles are getting roasted in the media for their sloppy game last week. They had 12 penalties and 5 turnovers. Vick had 4 int's, but was able to put together a winning drive late. He had only taken 12 snaps in the preseason due to injury, and clearly wasn't ready. "Oh, man," the quarterback said. "I gotta get out of Cleveland." "I thought he was rusty," Eagles coach Andy Reid said. "But he kept competing, kept shooting. He's our quarterback and he had to work through it. He had to play, had to endure and had to tough it out." I like good teams off a loss. And this surely felt like a loss to Eagles players, coaches, and fans. Here are some of the stories coming out of that game. Andy Takes Heat For Vicks Picks. Obviously Lurie Put Too Much Pressure on Reid, Vick. Why Vick May Cost Reid His Job in Philly, etc. This reminds me of the Jets, who were a national joke for not scoring preseason TD's. They seemed to use that as added motivation as they blasted the Bills.

The Ravens looked pretty good against the plucky Bengals. I can image them high fiving in the film session watching Ed Reed returning the cliching pick 6. They should feel good. They got a prime time division win against a decent Cincy squad. "Obviously, everything went pretty well for us tonight," Flacco said. Now they have to go on the road, on a short week vs a focused nonconference opponent.

This is a big early season game for Reid, Vick and Co. I think we are getting solid, results-based value here. This line was Phi-3.5 at The Greek 3 days ago!! Accordingly, 91% of the early action has been on the Ravens per SportsInsights. Misperception plus overreaction equals betting value. When you have a situation edge and can also get real market value, you've got a solid play. Anything less than 3 is a true bargain here, IMO.

Best Wishes!!

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