NFL Week 1 Line Breakdown

By Chad Millman

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the myth of the opening number and how, since the days of old-time bookmaker Bob Martin and the Stardust hotel, the importance of that line has diminished. As I pointed out in the piece, the numbers for the NFL season open as early as May. That isn't just for one game; that is for every game, from September through December.

The subject came up again in a podcast I did this week with Cantor bookmaker Mike Colbert. (For those who dared not to listen, Cantor runs the sports books at several casinos, including the M, Tropicana, Palazzo, Venetian, Hard Rock and Cosmopolitan.) Colbert beat the rest of the industry by putting up 16 weeks' worth of numbers last spring, every week except Week 17. What I didn't understand was, if I am a bettor playing Week 1 games this week, what number am I getting? The ones he set in May? Or a new set that takes into account everything that has happened in training camp since then?

"The numbers we put up in May come down when we get to Week 1," Colbert said, "and the action on those is almost entirely sharp. We don't get a lot of square bettors looking to bet midseason NFL games in the middle of spring."

Keep in mind that Cantor uses a pretty sophisticated computer program to help set the lines for each game. It accounts for thousands of factors and spits out a projected line. It's a number Colbert and his team consider strongly when deciding on what the final line will be. They call the machine Midas and keep it locked in a room away from the viewing public. I once did a piece about Midas for "E:60" and asked if I could get a look. Colbert's boss, Lee Amaitis, stared me down and said, "No one sees Midas."

With Midas and the brainpower of his team, Colbert usually feels pretty good about the numbers he is posting. But even if Colbert is leaving himself vulnerable to sharp players by coming out first with an entire season's worth of booty, there is still an advantage to being out early that plays directly into the first week of the season. Between the first postings and how the season win totals are played, Colbert gets a clear picture of how wiseguys feel about certain teams. Which means, in theory, he should be able to post a number for Week 1 that is pre-pounded.

At least in theory. I asked Colbert to send me his May 1 Week 1 lines, the lines he posted last weekend and the lines as of Wednesday night. Here is what they looked like, with comments from Colbert about decisions made and money coming in where applicable:

Cowboys vs. Giants (just fun to do in retrospect)

May 1: Giants -3
Sept. 1: Giants -4
Sept. 5: Giants -3.5

"Personally, I am going to be all over the Cowboys," Colbert said Wednesday night.

Good for Mike. I should have listened to him. Instead I spent the second half of the game watching the Democratic National Convention, knowing I had no chance of winning Giants -3.5.

Colts vs. Bears

May 1: Bears -10
Sept. 1: Bears -10
Sept. 5: Bears -9.5

Eagles vs. Browns

May 1: Eagles -7
Sept. 1: Eagles -7.5
Sept. 5: Eagles -9

Bills vs. Jets

May 1: Jets -6
Sept. 1: Jets -3
Sept. 5: Jets -2.5

Colbert says: "Our limits in the spring are much lower on these opening numbers, just $2,000 to $5,000. During the season, we will take up to $100,000. Still, this is interesting to me. There is no way a sharp who likes to get the best number would bet the Bills plus-3 now when he could have had the plus-6 way back when. Our model still makes the Jets 5.5-point favorites in this game, but it is weighted heavily on last year. Even now that it is at 2.5, there are not a lot of people coming in to lay it. I would not have expected, when a line has moved three points, for smart guys to take the three. Personally, I think there is value on the Jets now. Even stranger? The Jets are usually a big public team. They usually get bet on quite a bit, but even today we are taking Bills money-line bets. Those are probably among the ticket leaders."

Redskins vs. Saints

May 1: Saints -10
Sept. 1: Saints -9.5
Sept. 5: Saints -7

Colbert says: "This was all sharp money happening in a 24-hour period from Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon."

Patriots vs. Titans

May 1: Patriots -7
Sept. 1: Patriots -6.5
Sept. 5: Patriots -5.5

Colbert says: "Sharp, sharp money has bet 'dog, but we can't go too far down, though. Around 75 percent of our action comes on Sunday morning, and we know Patriot money is going to come in then."

Jags vs. Vikings

May 1: Vikings -4
Sept. 1: Vikings -4
Sept. 5: Vikings -4

Dolphins vs. Texans

May 1: Texans -6
Sept. 1: Texans -10
Sept. 5: Texans -12.5

Colbert says: "The biggest, best and sharpest bets we've taken are minus-10 and minus-10.5. I think we probably underestimated how good Houston is and overestimated Miami. We were high on Miami because of a strong finish last year, and our computer model spit them out as a good team. It still overvalues them. We can't stop taking bets on that game. It's going to go to 13. As I sit here, there are bets coming in on Houston."

Rams vs. Lions

May 1: Lions -9.5
Sept. 1: Lions -9.5
Sept. 5: Lions -7

Colbert says: "This is real similar to Saints-Redskins. Same numbers, with the smart money coming in on the Rams."

Falcons vs. Chiefs

May 1: Chiefs -1
Sept. 1: Falcons -2
Sept. 5: Falcons -2.5

49ers vs. Packers

May 1: Packers -6.5
Sept. 1: Packers -4.5
Sept. 5: Packers -5.5

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

May 1: Buccaneers -1
Sept. 1: Panthers -3
Sept. 5: Panthers -1.5

Colbert says: "We took six or seven limit bets on the Panthers in the spring. This moved all the way to 3, and then we took a bunch of Tampa plus-3. It won't move from where it is. I think initially we rated Tampa much better than the market did. Fezzik could tell you firsthand he came in here and bet against Tampa in a lot of games. We think Tampa is a little bit better than the market. This is one where we will find out after the game who is really right."

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

May 1: Cardinals -2.5
Sept. 1: Seahawks -1.5
Sept. 5: Seahawks -2.5

Colbert says: "This was us underestimating Seattle's worth. That game is traditionally is always going to be Zona minus-3, and the wiseguys bet against Zona in everything we did, and they bet on Seattle in everything. Smart guys rate them to be much better than Zona, obviously, because that game moved five points, on the road, with a rookie quarterback."

Steelers vs. Broncos

May 1: Steelers -1
Sept. 1: Pick 'em
Sept. 5: Broncos -1.5

Bengals vs. Ravens

May 1: Ravens -7
Sept. 1: Ravens -6.5
Sept. 5: Ravens -6

Chargers vs. Raiders

May 1: Chargers -1
Sept. 1: Pick 'em
Sept. 5: Raiders -1.5

Colbert says: "Another sharp, sharp game. The Chargers have been bet against in everything we have done."